Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Ryan Lieberman and a Flex Position in Fantasy Football

Hello All (especially Ryan Lieberman),

In our fantasy football league, we have a proposal to start a flex position instead of another WR.

I am 100% absolutely in favor of it. Here's how I see it working:

Starting Lineup:
1 QB
2 RB
2 WR
1 TE
1 K
1 Def
1 Flex which includes (RB, WR, TE)

There are several reasons why I think that this is a good idea

First, there is a near universal consensus that fantasy football is fun because it allows us to be GMs of our team. In fact, there aren't many other great things about fantasy football. The scoring is done by a machine. There isn't really anything physical about it ( I mean I guess if you are into spending more time with your laptop.) But it's all about the GM. The free agency. The trading. The rosters. Allowing for a flex position increases the GM role in the game. You now have to make more advanced decisions such as starting Laurent Robinson over Felix Jones which is a decision that you never had to deal with before. This also affects the draft. Now, you are not spoon fed 3 WRs- you have more options to draft.

Second, we can all say with confidence that fantasy football should mock real football in certain aspects. Training Camp? No. Playoffs? Yes. See the difference? Adding a flex position adds to the aroma of real football. Think about the following players: Darren Sproles, Aaron Hernandez, Ben Tate. They all have 2 things in common. First, they are all fantasy studs. Second, they are all guys that are benched in more leagues then they are started. Why? Because they are flex guys. You end up starting Lance Moore over Darren Sproles because of the stupid 3 WR set that is programed. Imagine if the Saints had to do that? The Patriots? The Texans? Would they still be playoff teams? Maybe. But it would be harder and by far more arbitrary.

Third, if fantasy football should mock real life, then look at how many teams use the 3 wide set all game every game (as we have to.) I can't name too many teams or at least teams with prominent third wide receivers. What do Chad Ochocinco, Donald Driver, Lance Moore, Ted Ginn Jr, Lee Evans, Jacoby Jones, Harry Douglas, Bryan Johnson, Jerome Simpson, Mario Manningham, Denarious Moore, Patrick Turner, Laurent Robinson (with miles austin back), Damian Williams, Jason Avant, Early Doucet, Patrick Crayton all have in common? They are all the 3rd wideout on their respective teams and all of them are mediocre or a bit above average in terms of fantasy points and real targets.

Fourth, fantasy football is about scoring more points than the other opponent. That's the way it should be. Having players that score more points creates more excitement. Don't believe me? What is it like when your wideout scores 2 points? It sucks and you hate life. Starting Rob Gronkowski over Nate Burleson creates a warmer feeling in your heart. If you like that, then flex it up with me bro!

Fifth, even if you HATE flex, you can still start three wide receivers and go back to the barriers. If you think that is unfair because then you are at a competitive disadvantage, then you have just conceded that flex will give you more points so you should probably not will a contradiction and just do flex.

Normally, I would extrapolate this further but I feel like these points are so self evident that it is not necessary to go any farther. If you disagree, please comment and I will answer every single objection.

K Thanks!

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Why the Cowboys Will Win the NFC East

Hello all,

Haven't posted in a while and have to keep the intro short!

So, The Giants just beat the Cowboys by a field goal- here is my theory on why that won't even matter.

I predicted that the Cowboys would lose this game at the start of the season and also predicted that the Cowboys would be 8-5 at this time of the year (as opposed to 7-6.) I still think the Cowboys will go 10-6 this year and beat the Giants at the Meadowlands to win the division. But my point is that the Cowboys will still win the division even if they were 9-7.

The Giants and Cowboys are both 7-6 at the current moment with the Giants ahead based on head to head matchups. The Cowboys have the 4-9 Buccaneers and the 5-8 Eagles before the Giants. The Giants have the 4-9 Redskins and 8-5 Jets next on their schedule. I predict that the Cowboys will win both of those games and the Giants will lose both of those games and the Cowboys will clinch the division before even playing the Giants in Week 17. Here is why

1. Why the Giants will lose:
No doubt that tonight's win was big for the Giants to even be in this conversation. Let me rephrase: if the Giants lost, it was game over for the Giants. Looking at ESPN everything is going perfectly for the Cowboys. The Giants are now seen as an elite team and getting a ton of praise. Good! The ESPN poll predicts that every state thinks that the Giants will win the NFC east! Even better! Why is this good? BECAUSE THE GIANTS SUCK WHEN THEY ARE FAVORED. They are the worst team in the NFL when they have breathing room. Look at 2007- no one thought they would make the playoffs yet they won the Superbowl. Look at 2008- they were 13-3 and lost to a very average Eagles team in the playoffs. The past 2 years they started the season great and then collapsed. The reason for this? The Giants win games when they are the underdog (which is ironic because they are supposed to be the Giants.) When the pressure is on, they are great. Next week against the Redskins, there will be no pressure. They just beat the Cowboys and everyone in the media will predict a huge win against a team that has found a way to lose 9 very close games. Which is exactly the reason why the Giants will lose: this game will not be close. The Redskins will get hot early and stay hot because the Giants will still be coming off of the "Media loves us" high and that "division winning" feeling. Plus, the Redskins almost beat the Patriots- a team that is 10-3! Then, they will face the Jets who are actually a really good team but the pressure still wont be on because the Giants will still think they are better because last game was a "fluke" and whatnot. Plus, the Giants have a terrible pass defense and Plaxico Burress will want 1,000 yards in this game alone for revenge and the Giants will give it to him (exaggeration but you get the point.) This will make the last game irrelevant because...

2. WHy the Cowboys will win:
The Cowboys will win the next 2 games for the exact same reason why the Giants will lose the last 2 games: everyone will be focused on the Giants. The best thing that the Cowboys can do right now is just block out the media and let the media block them out. Next weeks game against a Buccaneers team that has been blown out time after time should be easy. If it is not, then the Cowboys don't deserve to go to the playoffs anyway. The game against the Eagles will be the real test. The Eagles have been the biggest disappointment this year ( I called that as well) but they played well against the Cowboys last time they played each other. This won't be an easy win but the disfunction of the Eagles will break them down in the key moments of this game which is why I give Dallas the win. These predictions are the safer ones.

NOTE: So, Im pretty much betting on a GIANT COLLAPSE (get it?) For the game in Week 17 to matter, the Cowboys and Giants have to have the same record or the Cowboys have to be a game ahead of the Giants. So, the Cowboys have to at least go 1-1 if the Giants win a game. If both go 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2 then the winner of week 17 will win the division. If the Cowboys are 2-0 and the Giants are 1-1 then the winner of the game will win the division. Same for if the Giants go 0-2 and the Cowboys go 1-1. If the Cowboys go 1-1 and the Giants go 2-0 then the Giants win the division. Same for if the Giants go 1-1 and the Cowboys go 0-2. But the most likely scenario will be for the Giants to go 0-2 and the Cowboys to at least go 1-1. If they go 2-0 then congrats boys! If not, I still pick the Cowboys to beat the Giants in Week 17.